26 September, 2006

Turkey and Iran to invade Kurdistan

Kurdistan is largely mountainous region stretching from Turkey, across northern Iraq and into Iran, taking in a bit of Syria on the way. Each of those countries has a long history of conflict with its Kurdish ethnic minority populations. Now, reports DEBKAfile in a detailed analysis, the Kurds are likely to be the subject of a co-ordinated Turkish and Iranian invasion.

Map of Kurdistan, with inset showing etnhic Kurdish inhabited area, based on Wikipedia.

DEBKA concludes that Turkey wants

...to get in its blow against Kurdistan before an American action against Iran. The Turks buy Russian and Iranian intelligence evaluations according which the US attack may take place at any time between the last week of September and the end of December, 2006...
...Iran, for its part, is waiting for Turkey to make the first move in Iraqi Kurdistan. Its troops will go into action only after the first Turkish soldier and tank are on the move.
A major worry is that the Coalition forces in Iraq would be drawn into a major conflict, one which they currently do not have the resources to fight. Unfortunately, there is little sign of Coalition governments having the political will to make such resources available.

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