31 October, 2006

Madrassa Attack 2: the reaction

The Pakistan government, reports Boston World News, is now saying that the madrassa was taken out because US intelligence reports indicted that senior al Qaeda figures were in hiding there.

"This was a training camp, and they had been warned to stop their activities," said General Mahmud Ali Durrani, Pakistan's ambassador in Washington. "They did not pay heed, so they were hit by our gunships and all the people there were killed. There will be a lot of unhappy or misguided people saying we are killing our own people for the sake of the Americans, but we had a commitment to fight terrorism on our soil, and we made a decision."
We shall no doubt eventually see who fired the missiles but, as BWN reminds us, it would not be the first time the Pakistanis have lied about such things.
A similar strike occurred in January, when US missiles devastated a nearby compound that authorities believed Zawahri [a senior al Qaeda figure] was visiting. Officials initially denied, then acknowledged, reports that a US drone had carried out the strike, which killed 18 people. The raid set off protests across Pakistan and forced the Musharraf government to publicly condemn the action.
The Pak Tribune has no doubts that it was an American raid and reports on political opposition and the demonstrations which are certain to follow.

South Asia Times analyses the political repercussions, concluding that President Musharaff is now heading for a showdown with Islamic forces sooner rather than later.

Aljazeera also examines the political consequences, indicating a jihad against the government.

A (UK) Times correspondent has spoken to several eye-witnesses who claim to have seen "a US predator drone" circling the madrassa on days immediately before the attack.

Arab News focuses on the claim that many of the dead were children or religious students, as does the Arab The News - International.

The Khaleej Times condemns the raid as a war on innocents.

The BBC has a picture gallery of the raid's aftermath

So it goes on with claim and counter claim. One thing is fairly certain: any chance of peace deals between Musharaff and Pakistan's western border rebels in Balochistan, Waziristan and Northwest Frontier Province must be much reduced.

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Taking the bus.

In Florida, enterprising 15-year-old Ritchie Davis helped himself to a bus, driving it along route 39, picking up passengers and collecting fares along the way. Until, that is, some killjoy passenger rang 911 and Orlando's finest arrived.

Ritchie Davis, 15, of Orlando, was stopped minutes later in Seminole County behind the wheel of the Lynx bus carrying Johnson and one other passenger, Seminole investigators said. Deputies said he had stolen the bus and driven it without a license. He was arrested on a grand-theft-auto charge and being held at Seminole's Juvenile Assessment Center.

The case started earlier that morning in Orange County when, deputies said, Davis took a retired Lynx bus from the Central Florida Fairgrounds off West Colonial Drive. They said he proceeded to drive Route 39 almost as if he were a Lynx driver: He was on schedule and knew all the route's stops and turns.
Three cheers for Ritchie. If he was on schedule, where was the official bus?

I do not know about the US, but in the UK a driver who ran on time, knew the route, could work the ticket machine and was not rude to passengers would raise suspicions straight away.

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Iraq Inquiry

British service men are being killed in Iraq and Afghanistan but that does not seem worry some in the House of Commons who see it as an opportunity to mount a political attack on the government. Today, as the Times reports, an anti-war coalition of Welsh and Scotch nationalists and Labour left wingers is attempting to force an inquiry into the Iraq war and its aftermath to be carried out by senior MPs. Not to be outflanked, the Conservatives have their own proposal for a different sort of inquiry but say that if the government does not agree to it, they will vote with the anti-war coalition.

There is no doubt that the government badly mishandled the issue of the Iraq invasion. There was a very strong case for the invasion but the government chose not to make it. Blair instead preferred to rely on incredible lies, which were inevitably going to come back to haunt him. I have seen no evidence that the government has subsequently mishandled events, although ministers are guilty of failing to present the strong argument for current attempts to turn Iraq into a functioning democracy.

The parliamentary vote is no more than a political manoeuvre, designed to politically embarrass the government. If the rebel MPs were really interested in defence issues they would be attacking the government over the disgraceful state of affairs in Afghanistan, where insufficient numbers of troops and a lack of helicopters has been a serious problem. As for the Conservatives' opportunism, it is disgrace but hardly surprising since the military experience amongst the backbenchers is long gone and the party is now dominated by pink and green liberals.

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Madrassa Attack:

The Pakistani government has taken out a madrassa (religious school) in Bajaur, North West Frontier Province, that was being used as a training camp by Al Qaeda. Early reports indicate that over 80 missiles were fired from helicopters and that at last 80 people have been killed. The locals are not impressed and have taken to the streets. So far, details are sketchy because the Pakistani authorities initially kept the press out of Bajaur. The BBC, however, has film of the aftermath and the early exchanges in the propaganda battle.

Prince Charles has cancelled a visit to neighbouring Peshawar on the advice of the Pakistani government. Very sensible, which is more than can be said for the Foreign Office officials who approved the visit. Has nobody told them that Peshawar is a Taliban stronghold where the Pakistani government struggles to exercise authority.

30 October, 2006

Operation OQAB in Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan the ISAF has launched Operation OQAB (Eagle). A NATO spokesman told a press briefing on 18 October that,

It is a security plan to conduct security operations in all regions across Afghanistan. It will be the first ever country-wide joint Afghan national security forces, and ISAF operation together. I will not obviously give operational details, but it is an Afghan-led operation, Afghan National Police will be fully integrated into it and ISAF units will act in support of Afghan national security forces.
The purpose of this integrated security operation is to allow and encourage reconstruction and development to take place across Afghanistan.
And I think that's what I need to know. It will take place throughout the winter months that are coming.
The early results of OQAB are just becoming clear. Battles have been taking between the Afghan/ISAF forces and the Taliban in Zabul(or Zabol) and in Uruzgan (Oruzgan) provinces. In Zabul, in south east Afghanistan bordering on Balochistan, 55 bandits have been killed and some 20 wounded for the loss of one ISAF soldier. In Uruzgan, on Zabul's western border, the latest score is that the Afghan/ISAF is 70 without loss.


Click on map to enlarge.

Press reports: Washington Post, and an even more than usually negative Guardian.

David Cameron: the Young Adult Trust.

David Cameron, the well known blogger, Liberal and leader of the Conservative Party has a new big idea. It is, as the Guardian headline puts it, to "Make young people earn their rights".

Young people could be given their adult rights as a reward for completing a modern day national service scheme, the Tory leader, David Cameron, said today.

Linking rights to responsibilities would encourage youngsters to show they are responsible citizens, Mr Cameron said today as he challenged the notion that rights should automatically come with age.
It is not clear precisely what these "rights" are, only that they will be granted to 18-year-olds if they qualify for something called "adult status". Equally unclear, is the nature of "early adult status" which will be awarded to some, as yet unspecified, under 18s for some, as yet unspecified, demonstration of responsibility.

To further these ambitions, a new charity has been established, the Young Adult Trust. You can watch and hear the waffle on webcameron. Cameron seem to have in mind some sort of national course for school leavers. If this story runs, in a future post, I might don my educational historian's hat and detail the sad and sorry history of such courses, from the Continuation Colleges envisaged in the 1918 Education Act, through the Community Colleges which were a principal feature of the 1944 Education Act and on to the original 1981 conception of the Youth Training scheme (YTS). For now, it will have to suffice to say that the first two measures became dead letters because they were too expensive to realise and YTS ran into all sorts of political and technical problems.

Earlier today, Cameron visited a youth centre where a young adult called him a bastard and told him he did not know his arse from his elbow. It is not reported if the prescient youth was a certified responsible adult.

Police want water cannon.

The Daily Telegraph carries a report that the Metropolitan Police (London's police force) are wanting to ban flag burning and to be able to use water cannons to deal with violent demonstrators. The proposal seems to have originated in a report by Assistant Commissioner Tarique Ghaffur, the Met's senior Muslim officer. Assistant Commissioner Token, who in the past has been perceived as soft on the problem of Islamic extremists, seems to be trying to cover his back as a result of the adverse reaction by a public tired of watching the police stand idly by as Islamic demonstrators flout the law. The two most notable occasions being: in Trafalgar Square last February,over the Danish cartoons; and outside Westminster Abbey, last month, over the Pope.

Of course the friends of the terrorists in the human rights industry are against the proposals but they do have a valid point when they argue that the police already possess the powers to intervene. Indeed, why should the police be given the ability to use extreme measures when they repeatedly refuse to use the powers they have. Moreover, if the police feel it is safer use water cannon rather than to wade in and crack heads in the traditional manner, it will soon become a measure of first resort and be used in all manner of circumstances.

Over the years, I have seen enough of these reports to be cynical enough to bet that, having given the public the impression that the police is getting tough, AC Token's report will be quietly forgotten and he, and his colleagues, will quietly continue the traditional appeasement.

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Sydney mufti: the terrorist connections?

The row over Sheik Taj el-Dene Elhilaly,the Sydney mufti continues. At last, it is getting interesting.

The Australian claims that the federal government knew of the Sheik's links with Egyptian terrorist groups as early as 1984. In 1986, the Australian continues, the then immigration minister tried to have Elhilaly deported but was opposed by senior figures in the Labour government "including then Treasurer Paul Keating and MP Leo McLeay", who were worried about losing ethnic votes. MCleay's constituency contained the mosque where the mufti was based. In 1990 the Shiek was granted permanent residence in the country despite the intelligence available:

The Egyptian Government and its secret agents were concerned about Sheik Hilali's influence, particularly on the expatriate Egyptian community in Australia. They revealed that Sheik Hilali had spent some years training in Libya.

The Egyptians were concerned that he had been sent to train extremists.

After his arrival in Australia, Sheik Hilali was said to be linked to another extremist group, the Soldiers of God, which was believed to be involved in the assassination of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981.
If the Australian's report is accurate, then suddenly, it becomes clear why the government is getting so worked up about, and why Islamic leaders are distancing themselves from, the mufti. Embarrassment all round.

As for the mufti himself, a heart attack, means there will be no press interviews, sermons or terrorist activities over the next few days.

29 October, 2006

SA AIDS policy - betroot out, drugs in.

Mantombazana Edmie Tshabalala-Msimang, the South African health minister, better known as Dr. Beetroot, in honour of her recommended cure for AIDS, is no longer in charge of her country's response to the disease. According to allAfrica.com President Mbeki has had enough of world-wide ridicule and has replaced Mantombazana Edmie Tshabalala-Msimang (for whom thanks be to copy and paste) with his Deputy President, Phumzile-Mlambo Ngcuka.

"The beetroot and all that lemon stuff is out the window. These guys are now serious about getting it right," an adviser involved in recasting government's policy told the influential daily.

He was referring to Tshabalala-Msimang's much-ridiculed obsession with vegetables as a method to manage the disease.

Organisers of this weekend's conference said the minister, who was discharged from hospital on Friday after suffering from a lung ailment, was not invited to the conference to ensure unity and no controversy.

In September, after an United Nations AIDS conference where Stephen Lewis, the UN special envoy for AIDS in Africa, accused the South African government of expounding HIV/AIDS theories "more worthy of a lunatic fringe than a concerned and compassionate state".

The attack, aided by internal pressure from labour and civic groups prompted Mbeki to announce a shake-up which sidelined Tshabalala-Msimang and established an inter-ministerial committee to oversee the implementation of the comprehensive plan against HIV/AIDS. The plan included reviving the South African National AIDS Council (Sanac), now headed by Mlambo-Ngcuka.

A council workshop on Tuesday will help to plot the way forward.

The AIDS conference, attended by a number of civil society groups, including the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) and the South African Council of Churches, as well as the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), aims to come up with a plan to help government curb HIV/AIDS.

Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi told the deputy president: "Now you've come and you have been brilliant... It looks like the days of marching against the government (on being ineffective regarding HIV/AIDS) are over. We are happy people."
Mantombazana Edmie Tshabalala-Msimang remains as health minister.

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A cuckoo way to run a war.

According to the Observer headline, the "Afghanistan war is 'cuckoo', says Blair's favourite general". That is not exactly what General, the Lord Guthrie, former Chief of the Defence Staff, told them in an interview.

Anyone who thought this was going to be a picnic in Afghanistan - anyone who had read any history, anyone who knew the Afghans, or had seen the terrain, anyone who had thought about the Taliban resurgence, anyone who understood what was going on across the border in Baluchistan and Waziristan [should have known] - to launch the British army in with the numbers there are, while we're still going on in Iraq is cuckoo,' Guthrie said.
Guthrie did not say the war per se is cuckoo, rather he was referring to the way it is being pursued, with insufficient numbers of troops with insufficient equipment. The thrust of Guthrie's argument in the interview is that, in the past governments thought they could use the so-called peace dividend to reduce military spending; however, circumstances have changed and the British armed forces are now dangerously over-stretched, a problem likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The UK's last fundamental strategic defence review in 1998, Guthrie said, had been "geared to a dramatically different world".

My interpretation of the interview is that His Lordship has been sent in to open the batting for the armed forces in an internal government debate over defence strategy and funding, with a view to putting public pressure on the politicians and mandarins. When Guthrie says,
'A lot has changed and we do actually need more soldiers to actually do the tasks - and new equipment. And we are saddled with some things that it doesn't look awfully likely we're going to use',
he is possibly referring to Trident, something we are unlikely to use but the cost of which is threatening to unbalance the entire defence budget and will require some hard decisions to be made. If my reading is correct then, over the next few months, we can expect plenty more salvoes from both sides.

Cabinet memo calls for a Muslim friendly foreign policy:

Something of a fuss has broken out about a secret government document which the Sunday Telegraph claims to have got hold of. According to the Telegraph, the document, a cabinet memo,

...admits that, in an ideal world, "the Muslim would not perceive the UK and its foreign policies as hostile" – effectively accepting the argument that Britain's military action in Iraq and Afghanistan has served as a recruiting sergeant for Islamist terrorist groups. Publicly, Mr Blair has resisted this line fiercely. During his final speech as leader to Labour's annual conference last month, he described such claims as "enemy propaganda".
The logical course of action, the memo argues, is to reduce the UK's military commitments around the globe. In other words, stop fighting Islamic terrorism and pull out of the War on Terror.

The idea that terrorists will stop killing and maiming if we do not oppose them is so ludicrous that it can only have come from a senior official out of touch with the real world. That sounds to me like the Foreign Office.

What if we did tell the USA that the UK was no longer an ally in the War on Terror and pulled our forces out of out Iraq and Afghanistan and anywhere else where our military presence might upset Muslims? In the Chicago Sun Times, Mark Steyn has the answer figured out for America and the lessons can be applied to the UK:
...suppose the ''Anyone But Bush'' bumper-sticker set got their way; suppose he and Cheney and Rummy and all the minor supporting warmongers down to yours truly were suddenly vaporized in 20 seconds' time. What then?

Nothing, that's what. The jihad's still there. Kim Jong Il's still there. The Iranian nukes are still there. The slyer Islamist subversion from south-east Asia to the Balkans to northern England goes on, day after day after day.
Exactly, the problems are not going to go away just because the UK adopts a foreign policy that does not upset Muslims. This is an ideological conflict between opposing sets of cultural values. Given the extreme opposition, to western post-Enlightenment Judeo-Christian value systems, of the Islamic terrorist groups and their sponsoring states, the west has a stark choice: it can either defend itself or surrender its way of life to the Islamic extremists. There is no middle way

Sheikh Elhilaly: Reaction

The controversy surrounding the Sydney mufti, Sheik Taj el-Dene Elhilaly, rumbles on, with the Australian press, for example, the Age, calling for his dismissal. British Muslims are supporting him.

The episode seems to parallel the row in the UK over veils. In both instances, government ministers are wading in and demanding strong action. However, in both instances, ministers are concentrating on the ephemera and carefully avoiding the substantive issues. The UK and Australia each have a problem with the failure of Islamic immigrants to integrate into society but neither will confront their problem head on. Instead, British ministers prefer to manufacture a row about veils and the Australians choose to stir things up over some non-PC remarks by a cleric. The politicians have utilised these narrow issues to distract popular opinion by steering it away from a wider debate on the nature of Islam, both of itself and in relation to western societies.

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