28 October, 2006

Lt Tom Tanswell

The MoD has announced the death of Lt Tom Tanswell, the 120th British army fatality in Iraq. Lt Tanswell was serving with 58 (Eyre's) Battery, 12th Regiment Royal Artillery and died in a road traffic accident.

Lieutenant Tom Tanswell was born in London on 23 February 1979. Prior to joining the Army he had gained a degree in Management and Marketing from the University of Manchester, and amongst other things, had also been the area manager for a major supermarket chain.

He commissioned into the Royal Artillery in August 2004 and, upon successful completion of the Royal Artillery Young Officers' Course, was posted to 12th Regiment Royal Artillery taking his place as a Troop Commander within 58 (Eyre's) Battery in February 2005.

During his time with the Battery, Tom deployed on exercise to Crete and to Poland prior to deploying to Iraq for the first time on Operation TELIC 8 in April this year. In Iraq he was a Multiple Commander, directly responsible for twelve men, manning three vehicles. He frequently escorted Danish Military Police and reconstruction teams and was well-known and respected by his Danish peers.

Tom was a tremendously enthusiastic and cheerful young man. He had a broad spectrum of interests and hobbies and this was evident, not just within the Army, but also from his time at university where he acted in university productions and was sports captain for his halls of residence.

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Israelis nuke Lebanon by R. Fisk.

In the Independent (where else?), intrepid reporter Robert Fisk (who else?) asks,

Did Israel use a secret new uranium-based weapon in southern Lebanon this summer in the 34-day assault that cost more than 1,300 Lebanese lives, most of them civilians?
Given Fisk's evidence, or rather lack of it, the answer is almost certainly, they did not. Perhaps he is confusing the IDF with SMERSH. Actually, the real story is that a British scientist detected higher than normal radiation levels in material sent to him from a Lebanese bomb crater and inferred that depleted uranium shells might have been used. From that vague finding, Fisk set his imagination to work and came up with the secret atom bomb theory. As yet nobody has been able to confirm the Indy's conclusions. What a surprise!

In case such vacuity proves insufficient to prove the evil of the Israelis to Indy readers, Fisk excites them further by claiming that he had previously seen
...two dead babies who, when taken from a mortuary drawer in West Beirut during the Israeli siege of the city, suddenly burst back into flames.
In this context, previously means 14 years earlier. Fisk finishes off with a few hundred words on the health hazards of radioactivity - it's the isotopes, stupid - and how the bad guys from Israel murderously attacked the innocent Lebanese.

As propaganda goes, it is a good basic idea, but the storyline needs more work. Perhaps the Israelis should be placed in alliance with the Goa'uld. It would be more believable.

Causes for optimism in Iraq.

Analysing the situation in Iraq in this week's Spectator, William Shawcross argues that, although mistakes have been made, events are going in the right direction for the Coalition and to pull now would present Islamic terrorism with a disastrous victory over the Iraqi people.

Shawcross is clear where the blame lies for the present chaos in Iraq: not, as so much of the media would have us believe, with the USA but with Iran, Syria and Al Qaeda, who are stirring up various groups of Sunni and Shia terrorists against each other as much as against the Coalition. Yes, the US has made some mistakes but they are tactical rather than strategic. In particular, Shawcross singles out the Pentagon which he accuses of paying insufficient attention to the Iraqi defence ministry, specifically a failure to ensure that the Iraqi army is paid on time and has sufficient equipment.

After early mistakes, the US army and marines are learning fast; effective counter-insurgency training is now being given to all officers down to platoon level with the result that since 2003 their performance on the ground has improved considerably. In this, Shawcross detects echoes of the British army's learning curve in Malaya and Oman.

To Shawcross, the Iraqi army itself is another cause for optimism. Officer and NCO training is underway and, although more needs to be done, the initial success can be judged from the increase in reliable units from about four battalions in 2005 to several divisions a year later.

An interesting perspective in a week when it seems that the terrorists' allies in the US and UK fossil media have launched a second front against the Coalition.

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Marianne Willliams 2: medical, legal and police stupdity.

Since my original post on Marianne Williams, the Daily Telegraph has published an account of the evidence. It makes dismal reading. At least two incredible examples of medical incompetence in the treatment of the 15-month-old baby emerge.

  1. Tests which could have given a precise indication of the baby's condition were not carried out, so nobody had the remotest idea of what his salt levels were before the treatment.

  2. the consultant in charge used a formula for adults to calculate which drugs and dosage to use.
Rodney Gilbert, the doctor responsible for this shambles, was the person who first pointed the finger of suspicion at Williams. Always remembering the libel laws, draw your own conclusions.

The doctors did not have the necessary diagnostic information and, anyway, they applied the wrong treatment. Yet, despite this breathtaking medical incompetence, the Crown Prosecution Service agreed with the police and charged the mother with murder. There we have it: incompetent doctors, stupid lawyers and thick policemen. What a combination!

It strikes me that the wrong person was in the dock.

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27 October, 2006

German soldiers: Skull attack 2.

Spiegel Online has more on the so-called "scandal" of the German soldiers and the skull attack (SA) in Afghanistan, first revealed in Das Bild. It reports that a German television station has got hold of other, similar pictures.

Spiegel also has a video report, Skandal Bilder (scroll down the menu). It is in German but politicians pontificating sound the same in any language.

Bild-Zeitung has pictures of what the SA soldiers got up to. It is in German so, like me, the prurient might be grateful for Google Language Tools.

"Much ado about nothing", springs to mind. It was no more than a few squaddies letting off steam. With all the fuss it has created, it is a good job they were not medics. Those boys can be really imaginative.

Marianne Williams: not guilty.

Leading on from yesterday's post about Roy Meadow, which highlighted the possible dangers of relying on expert testimony in criminal cases, comes the trial of Marianne Williams, charged with murdering her baby by feeding him too much table salt. The prosecution argued she did it because she was depressed. The defence argued that the death was a tragic side effect of medical treatment requiring high levels of sodium chloride. Other than the testimony of expert witnesses, the prosecution had no proof. The verdict - not guilty.

The Daily Telegraph reports:

Miss Williams' lawyer Jacqui Cameron said that there was a worrying trend for mothers to be charged with murder on the basis of evidence that is "at best, as complex and, at worst, dubious".

"Clinicians are far too prone to point fingers of suspicion at persons who are already vulnerable," she said.
Exactly the point I was trying to make yesterday: the medical profession should know better. Expert witnesses presenting opinion and theory as fact is unacceptable. It is indeed encouraging that, as Williams' lawyer continued,
"The verdict today gives us hope that the general public is learning the lessons that doctors are failing to learn despite other high level cases such as Sally Clark, Trupti Patel and Angela Cannings."
Those are the the three women convicted of child murder after dubious expert evidence from Meadow.

The Telegraph also quotes a Detective Inspector as saying that,
the decision to press charges was only taken after a "meticulous review" of all the evidence.
Heh. Hands up all those who think Plod can spell epistemology, let alone understand the complex issues involved. They were out of their depth; but, to be fair to the police, they were reliant on experts who were every bit as arrogant as Meadow. Perhaps such reprehensible behaviour by expert witnesses should be identified as a syndrome. Meadow's Syndrome by Arrogance?

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The parable of the cat and the uncovered meat.

Sheik Taj el-Dene Elhilaly, a Sydney mufti, has upset the Aussies with a sermon in which he said that women displaying their "meat" are responsible for being raped.

"If you take uncovered meat and put it on the street, on the pavement, in a garden, in a park or in the backyard, without a cover and the cats eat it, is it the fault of the cat or the uncovered meat? The uncovered meat is the problem...

"If the meat was in the fridge and it (the cat) smelled it, it can bang its head as much as it wants, but it's no use...

..."If the woman is in her boudoir, in her house and if she's wearing the veil and if she shows modesty, disasters don't happen....

.."The woman was behind Satan playing a role when she disobeyed God and went out all dolled up and unveiled and made of herself palatable food that rakes and perverts would race for. She was the reason behind this sin taking place
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The Australian has a transcript, an Arabic audio file and reaction.

The Sheik is generating such opprobrium because in the modern orthodoxy of post-modern feminist theory all men are rapists and all women are victims. When you think about it, however, his remarks are little more than traditional common sense morality embroidered with a simple parable. Certainly nothing to get worked up about, unless you are a post-modernist feminist.

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26 October, 2006

Roy Meadow

Professor Roy Meadow is a paediatrician, whose so-called "expert" testimony was significant in securing the conviction of two women for murdering their children, The convictions were later squashed by the Appeal Court because Meadow's evidence was discredited. As a result, Meadow was struck off the medical register by the General Medical Council for serious professional conduct; but he successfully appealed to the High Court, whose ruling seemed to grant expert witnesses immunity from action by their governing professional bodies, whatever nonsense they spouted. The Appeal Court has now over-turned that decision on immunity but at the same time has reinstated Meadow.

It is a difficult case but I will try to explain the problems in simple terms. As the Times reports,

Professor Meadow was acclaimed as an expert in the field of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (Sids) and how such deaths could be differentiated from children harmed by their parents — so-called Munchausen’s Syndrome by Proxy.
It was Meadow's claimed expertise in these matters and his evidence that the accused women were suffering from Munchausen's Syndrome by Proxy, not SIDS, that led the jury to convict the accused.

A syndrome is not a disease in the normal sense, that is a disease with symptoms that can be seen or measured. It is essentially a pattern identified in the behaviour of a number of individuals which has been categorised and labelled by researchers in the medical profession as a "syndrome". That pattern of behaviour may or may not exist in the real world. In other words, where one team of researchers might identify a particular pattern, using the same data another team might come to a very different conclusion. It depends on how you interpret the data. Such a subjective interpretation of data is a theory rather than a fact. In academic jargon, it is a conceptualisation, that is, a way of looking at and interpreting things. Different people look at things in different ways.

I know these are difficult concepts to grasp , even for post-graduate students, but the essential point that is that Meadow's evidence was based on a (theoretical) conceptualisation but he claimed it as fact. The average jury, impressed by Meadow's status and not containing individuals who understood these complex issues, seem to have accepted Meadow's claims as facts and so the conviction was secured despite the absence of any physical evidence whatsoever.

As a professor, Meadow should have known better than to present theory as fact. Heaven knows what he is teaching his research students . At the time of the original trials I remember thinking that, when I was a research student, if I'd presented a my supervisor with an argument treating a theory or a view as fact, she would have demolished the argument very quickly.

It was the sheer arrogance of Meadow claiming his interpretation of theories as facts which led the GMC to strike him off. The Court of Appeal seems to have thought Meadow acted in good faith. I doubt they grasped the nature of the argument.

Neo-Taliban:

Drawing on a report in the the Los Angeles Times, the Asian Tribune has a story that, what it labels, a "neo-Taliban" movement is emerging as Islamic extremists from around the world are travelling to Pakistan and from there crossing over the mountain passes into Afghanistan to aid the local Taliban in their fight against the ISAF.

The foreign terrorists gather initially at staging bases in Quetta (Balochistan), Miramshah (Waziristan), and Peshawar (North West Frontier Province). From the map, it can be seen that essentially those three areas cover the whole of the Pakistan-Afghan border. It seems that NATO' worst nightmare is on the verge of coming true.

Of course the Pakistanis are denying the existence of Taliban training camps on their turf.


Click to enlarge in new window.

According to the LA Times, the Taliban camps are also being used to launch attacks on Europe. Some arrivals,

were told to launch attacks in Europe, said a senior Italian anti-terrorism official. He described the confessions of Milan-based Tunisian and Moroccan suspects who got to Syria, but then were sent back: "They said the representative of Zarqawi's group really grilled them: 'Do you have military experience? Here's an AK-47; do you know how to use it? Have you ever fired a mortar? If not, we don't want you.' "

Instead, they were directed to bomb a basilica in Bologna because it displays a painting of the prophet Muhammad as depicted in Dante's Inferno, investigators say. Moroccan and Italian police broke up the alleged plot and arrested the group this spring.


Meanwhile, Afghanistan's historical allure for Islamic militants, the lawlessness of the Pakistani border region and the aggressiveness of the Taliban make for an ominous combination, anti-terrorism officials said...

...Besides fighting in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda and its allies could once again use training venues and combat zones in the Afghan-Pakistani borderlands to groom terrorists for attacks in the West, Caprioli said. The suicide bombers who struck the London transport system last year and other British suspects in foiled terrorist plots traveled to Pakistan for training, expertise and direction, anti-terrorism officials say.

Greg Barker:

The Conservative Party MP, Greg Barker has left his wife and children to shack up with a man, apparently the local painter and decorator. The tabloids smell hypocrisy.

In the past Barker has voted against gay-friendly legislation, including four readings of the Adoption and Children Bill - a measure allowing unmarried couples, both straight and homosexual, to adopt children....

...Since the split Barker has quietly removed any mention of his wife and children from his own website. Previously he highlighted his family lifestyle in newsletters sent to constituents and his children featured in discussions on matters such as litter collection.
The charges of hypocrisy are not entirely unjustified against a senior member of a party which claims, "... the family will be at the heart of our social policy... the evidence that families provide the best environment for bringing up children is now overwhelming". However, the press would do better savaging Barker for his lamentable role as the leading standard bearer for global warming and all the rest of the anti-industry, middle-class dinner party pseudo-science that the Conservatives are peddling under the Cameron.

As for his behaviour in abandoning his wife and children, as the long-suffering Jane Clark might have said, what do you expect when you sleep with below stairs types?

Waziristan: Taliban taxes and law and order.

Having created a safe refuge for itself in Waziristan, the Taliban (aka militants) is starting to behave like a government and impose taxes. From the Australian:

PRO-TALIBAN militants operating in North Waziristan have announced plans to levy local taxes, further eroding Pakistan's authority in the remote tribal region bordering Afghanistan.

The plans were announced in pamphlets issued in the local capital, Miranshah. They follow the controversial September 5 agreement between local militants and Pakistani authorities, apparently with the personal approval of the Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.
In addition to taxation, another government function the Taliban has usurped is proving rather more popular with the locals: law and order. Khaleej Times:
Near Miranshah’s main bazaar, the militants have opened an office in an Islamist seminary, or madrasa, where their officials settle disputes among Pashtun tribesmen.

“We are responsible for maintaining law and order in the bazaar,” Eid Niaz, the deputy head of the office, told Reuters as tribesmen sat in a circle, waiting to plead their cases on issues such as disputes with neighbours.

Under the deal, tribes can be held responsible and punished for any violation to the agreement in line with tribal law. Punishment includes having vehicles confiscated by the government and shops and houses demolished or sealed.

Residents said crime had fallen since the militants took over security responsibilities in the region, though several people accused of being “American informers” had been killed.

“We’re happy that they have taken charge of law and order. We don’t have robberies anymore,” said one resident.

25 October, 2006

Israel in NATO?

The Jewish news service, Ynet has a story examining the possibility that Israel will join NATO. The obvious question is, why? What possible reason can Israel have for wanting to join a defensive alliance in which most of the member countries are in it for a free ride. Of the 26 member states, 21 will not raise a single rifle to defend themselves and one (France) behaves as though it is not a member.

NATO is a coalition of the unwilling. Its combat operations in Afghanistan are being undertaken by the US, British, Canadians and Dutch armed forces. Although NATO's ISAF is desperately short of troops, the rest of the members either will not send any troops or refuse to let those they do send go into combat areas. Australia makes a more military valuable contribution to NATO that the majority of member states. Do the Israelis really want to join this shambolic alliance?

A relic of the Cold War, NATO no longer serves any useful purpose and the farce over troops for Afghanistan is surely one of the final few nails in its coffin. The debate now should be about what structures are to replace it. Israel could be a valuable member of some type of new security apparatus.

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